A Mathematical Model for CFS/FM/IBS Onset and Remission

During my research for a forthcoming book, I came across similar information in several studies. The information result in a model that appears to be consistent with CFS/FM/IBS being an alteration of microfloras that persisted.

In probability modelling there are semi-stable processes that are have a random chance of  occurring. A good example is radio-active decay. The pattern that I saw was similar and would be consistent with alteration of microfloras by virus RNA.

The reported data when people with acute onset were followed is shown below. The conditions were technically different, but the onset rates for CFS were surprisingly similar. If we take a view that the infection RNA enters the stomach and result in microfloras mutations, then these mutations will be eliminated over time for most people — however some mutations take a long time to eliminate.

Infection Type Percentage going into CFS-like state at 6+ months
Ross River Virus 11% [583]
Lyme Disease 10-20%[2390]
EBV 11-13% [1651] [1652]
Sarcoidosis 47% [160]
Giardia 50% [1653]
Acute bacterial enteritis patients 7- 33% of IBS [1801]

Some studies tracked people after acute EBV and reported the following rates of these patients moving into CFS. Failure to recover rates for EBV over time

Time after EBV % Failed to Recover
6 months 11%-12%-13%
12 months 7%-9%
24 months 4%

Applying a little mathematical curve fitting to this data, we end up with the result shown below.

Recover Period Percentage Remaining that Recover Patients remaining
6 – 12 Months ~ 50% ~14%
12 – 24 Months (2 yrs) ~ 50% ~7%
24 – 48 Months (4 yrs) ??? 50% ~4%
48 – 96 Months (8 yrs) ??? 50% ~2%
96-192 Months (16 yrs) ??? 50% ~1%

Does this directly helps treat CFS? No — but it suggests that intentional attempts to destabilize microfloras may be beneficial.

(c) 2012 Ken Lassesen